Warmest year record 90% likely to be exceeded in the next five years

WMO: World to see 0.9-1.8 degree temperature rise in the upcoming five years

Between 2021 and 2015, the mean global (land and sea) mean near-surface temperate is expected to be at least 1°C warmer than pre-industrial (1850-1900) levels, according to the Global Annual to Decadal Climate Update  released by the World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) a few days ago. The annual temperature rise is highly likely to be between 0.9 and 1.8 degrees (high confidence). In the upcoming five years, though the likelihood of annual average temperature being 1.5 degree warmer, the threshold set by the Paris Agreement, is not high (40%), the odds are expected to increase with time. Additionally, the warmest year record so far is 90% likely to be exceeded in the next five years. Compared to the recent past (1981-2010 average), almost all regions on earth are warmer.

Predictions for 2021-2025 anomalies relative to 1981-2010
Predictions for 2021-2025 anomalies relative to 1981-2010. Ensemble mean (left column) for temperature (top, °C), sea level pressure (middle, hPa), precipitation (bottom, mm/day) and probability of above average (right column). (WMO, 2021)

Crowded beach under heatwave, Lima, 2015

Feature image

Crowded beach under heatwave, Lima, 2015

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